RHBInvest Research

Top Story: Media – Riding on TV3 and Malay adex growth Underweight

Sector Update

¨ According to Nielsen Media Research (NMR), Jul’s gross advertising expenditure (adex) for TV and print media combined rose 11.8% yoy (+8.3% mom), led by the print media (+17.8% yoy), while the TV segment saw improvement (+5% yoy) after experiencing a 3% yoy contraction in Jun.



Corporate Highlights



Fajarbaru: Slow LRT billings to weigh down on FY06/12 performance Outperform

Company Update (published 25 Aug)

¨ The weak FY06/11 result announced yesterday was partly due to the recognition of additional costs from existing projects, pending the approval of variation orders. If the variation orders are granted, there will be substantial writebacks in FY06/12.



Affin: Growing amid a challenging environment Market Perform

Briefing Note

¨ Given concerns over macro economic conditions and stiff competition the group remains selective with respect to loan growth. Loan growth thus far has not been at the expense of quality with management pointing to the improving gross impaired loan ratio trend. As for deposits, the growth has been helped by deposit campaigns but with a LD ratio of 78.9%, the group’s balance sheet remains liquid.



MMHE: Going ahead with Pasir Gudang yard acquisition Underperform

News Update

¨ MMHE announced yesterday that it had entered into a definite sale and purchase agreement with Sime Darby Engineering (SDE) for the Pasir Gudang yard but at a slightly lower purchase consideration of RM393.5m (vs. RM399m previously).



Corporate Results



Maxis: Steady performance Market Perform

2QFY11 Results / Briefing Note

¨ 1HFY11 net profit was within expectations as we expect a seasonally stronger 2H as well as potential earnings boost from the 6% service tax that we believe will be passed on to prepaid subscribers in 4Q.

Sime Darby: Ending the year with a bang Outperform

4QFY11 Results / Briefing Note

¨ FY06/11 core net profit was above our and consensus expectations, at 112-114% of FY06/11 forecasts. Main variances were the higher than expected revenue and EBIT for the heavy equipment and motor divisions. Sime declared a final single tier dividend of 22 sen, bringing FY11 DPS to 30 sen, which is higher than our projected 27 sen. This translates to net payout of 49%, and net yield of 3.4%.



UEM Land: Earnings continued to miss expectations Underperform (down from MP)

2QFY11 Results / Briefing note

¨ 2Q11 net profit missed expectations by 20-30%. The strong sequential growth of 171% in turnover was due to higher revenue from property development projects (+125%) and developed land sales (to RM122.1m from RM7.3m in 1Q11). This 2Q11 results also reflected the full quarter contribution from Sunrise.

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RHBInvest Research

Top Story: AirAsia – 2QFY12/11 results to trail consensus Market Perform

Results Preview

¨ We expect 2QFY12/11 results to meet our forecast but trail the market expectations.

¨ We expect 2QFY12/11 core PBT to come in at RM90-100m, down 21-29% yoy, on the back of an estimated 33% jump in average jet fuel cost and a 2.8% sequential drop in average passenger revenue, partially offset by an actual 3.6% sequential increase in the number of passengers carried.





Sector Call



Transport : Khazanah to own Tune Air, Tune Air to own MAS? Neutral

Sector Update

¨ The Edge Malaysia reported that MAS will rope in Tony Fernandes via Tune Air subscribing a stake in MAS of up to 20%. This is conditional upon Khazanah acquiring from Tony & Co a stake in Tune Air.

¨ The deal, if materialises, is positive to AirAsia as: 1) It is done at the shareholder level that means AirAsia’s P&L and balance sheet are intact; and 2) Reduced competition with MAS will mean higher yields to AirAsia.





Telecoms: Roaming in Singapore gets cheaper Overweight

SectorUpdate

¨ U Mobile is stepping up competition in the Malaysia-Singapore roaming market by enticing travelers with much lower roaming charges priced at local Singapore rates. Based on the rates gathered early this month, U Mobile is pricing its roaming charges at 30-80% for voice and 60% for SMS of the incumbents’ pricing.





Corporate Highlights



Fajarbaru : Acquiring 6.8-Acre land in Puchong Kinrara area for RM39.9m Outperform

News Update

- Fajarbaru is acquiring a piece of 6.8-acre freehold agricultural land zoned for residential development between Bandar Kinrara and Bukit Jalil for RM39.9m cash.

- Fajarbaru intends to build residential properties on the land with an estimated GDV of RM300-400m.

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RHBInvest Research

Top Story: Fajarbaru

Visit Note
Upbeat on new contract wins
The new contract wins could potentially come from: (1) Package B of the Ampang and Kelana Jaya LRT line extension project; (2) Building jobs for schools, colleges and university campuses; and (3) Infrastructure works in the East Coast.
FY06/11 net profit forecast is reduced by 10% as we now assume the RM150m contract for the five new LRT stations to only start contributing in FY06/12 (vis-à-vis FY06/11 we assumed previously).
Fair value is trimmed from RM1.65 to RM1.57 but maintain Outperform.

Sector Call

Banks: Mar ‘11 system data

Sector Update
Leading indicators charting new heights
No change to our Overweight stance on the sector. CIMB, AMMB and Affin are our top picks for the sector.

Semicon: March chip sales still up yoy Neutral

Sector Update

Unisem: Fair value at RM1.99 Market Perform

MPI: Fair value at RM4.95 Underperform

Notion: Fair value RM2.25 Market Perform

JCY: Fair value at RM0.74 Underperform (down from MP)


Corporate Highlights

JCY:

Visit Note

• Labour issues to affect margins in FY11
• Also, management highlighted there could be potential component shortages mainly for the motor controller chips that could affect the global supply chain of the HDD industry.
• We are reducing our FY11 net profit by 11.3% mainly to input higher operating expenses. However, we are raising our FY13 net profit by 7.6% to reflect margin improvement on the back of its expansion to China .
• Thus, we downgrade our call to Underperform (from market perform) and a lower fair value of RM0.74/share based on unchanged 10x CY11 EPS.

AirAsia:

Briefing Note

• Growth story and IPO of overseas units not without caveat
• Fair value is RM2.10. Maintain Underperform.

Digi:

1QFY11 Results/Briefing Note

• 1 Network modernisation will not affect dividends
• We have fine-tuned our earnings forecasts by 0.2-0.7% for FY11-13 due to marginally lower depreciation charges from lower capex assumptions.
• Fair value raised to RM30.00 from RM29.10 due to lower capex assumptions of RM650m p.a. (previously RM720-750m). Although we like the stock as a decent dividend yield play with data-led revenue growth, we believe the stock is almost fully valued at this juncture. Downgrade to Market Perform.

Axiata:

Company Update

• A fairly strong start to 2011 for XL
• The strong 1QFY11 growth in XL reinforces our Outperform call on Axiata, which offers good growth prospects albeit moderating this year. Maintain our SOP fair value of RM5.75.

Paramount:

News Update

• Acquiring land in Klang. Total cash consideration is RM110m, to be funded by internal funds and/or borrowings.
• We are positive on this acquisition, as Klang is the 2nd largest city in Klang Valley after KL, with a population of close to 750k. A well-planned commercial development is hence marketable.
• No change in our earnings estimates pending guidance from the management on GDV of the project.
• Maintain Market Perform with an unchanged fair value of RM5.92.

EON Capital:

News Update

• Eon Cap announced last Friday that the Board had accepted HL Bank’s offer, subject to and conditional upon: 1) the payment of an interim net dividend amounting to RM311.9m by Eon Bank (Proposed Interim Dividend); 2) the Proposed Interim Dividend received by Eon Cap shall not form part of the assets of Eon Cap to be disposed to HL Bank; and 3) the offer price of RM5.06bn remains unchanged and shall not be adjusted for the payment of the Proposed Interim Dividend. HL Bank has since confirmed that it is agreeable to the above conditions.
• The Proposed Interim Dividend is subject to the approval from BNM. In addition, an application will be made to the SC for the proposed change in control of MIMB Investment Bank. Once BNM’s and SC’s approvals are obtained, both parties shall proceed and complete the transaction.
• No change to our fair value of RM7.30 (based on HL Bank’s offer price) and Underperform call.

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RHBInvest Research

Banks:

• A focus for the banking sector this week would be on the upcoming MPC meeting on 11 Mar.
• We expect BNM to raise the SRR by 1%-pt during the meeting.
• We would not discount the possibility that macro-prudential lending measures could be introduced and we think this may involve raising the eligibility of credit cards and shortening the repayment period of HP financing.
• Overweight stance on the sector maintained.

Corporate Highlights

Fajarbaru:

• Lands RM150m LRT station jobs
• Maintain fair value of RM1.37 and Outperform call.

MAHB:

• AirAsia to build and own new Kuching LCCT?
• We are more inclined to view the move as nothing more than a pressure tactic against MAHB compel it to reduce the passenger service charge (PSC) of RM51 in KIA currently vis-à-vis RM25 in KLIA-LCCT.
• Fair value is RM7.67 based on “sum-of-parts”.

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Maybank IB Views

SECTOR UPDATE
Banking: Overweight
2010 in perspective, divining 2011

Overweight. The sector's value proposition lies in (i) stable economic growth which lends support to our aggregate net profit growth forecast of 11.6% in 2011 and 11.8% in 2012, (ii) benign inflation and bottoming margins, (iii) steady loan growth momentum, (iv) potential ETP upside surprises, (v) cross-synergies and burgeoning contribution from regional operations to group earnings, (vi) healthy capital ratios and (vii) decent valuations and dividend yields. RHB Capital and CIMB continue to be our top picks.


ECONOMICS
External Trade, January 2011
Slow start to 2011...

Exports got off to a slow start this year as it grew by +3.0% YoY in Jan '11 (Dec '10: +4.6 YoY). Sustaining the growth were commodity shipments amid declines in E&E. In contrast, imports growth accelerated to +13.5% YoY (Dec'10: +11.5 YoY) mainly due to intermediate goods, reflecting inventory management ahead of the Chinese New Year holidays. No change in our external trade growth for 2011(exports: +8.7%; imports: +10.4%; trade balance: +RM111.1b) amid steady global economic growth momentum so far in 2011 and the benefits of firm commodity prices to Malaysia.


Malaysia: Balance of Payment (BoP)
Capital flows the highlights in 2010 amid steady trade flows

Trends in capital accounts remained the highlights as current account surplus was sustained via surpluses in goods and services trades. Key points are: 1) Inward FDI bounced last year after the plunge in 2009; 2) Fourth consecutive year net FDI outflows as direct investment abroad (DIA) by Malaysians also rebounded; 3) Net inflows of portfolio funds in 2010 after net outflows in 2008-2009; 4) Record errors and omissions: which raised the issue of "disintermediation" of capital/money flows outside the formal financial/banking system.


Oil Trade
Sweet spot for Malaysia

We compare some key oil trade statistics as well as the trade balance impact analysis from crude oil price increases between major, large emerging and regional economies i.e. US, EU, China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia. Notwithstanding the risk to growth and inflation from crude oil price increase, being a net oil exporter puts Malaysia at a significant advantage in terms of positive trade balance effect from - and low vulnerabillity to - crude oil price increase.


COMPANY UPDATE
Sunway Holdings RM2.18: Buy
Wins Legoland works Shariah-compliant

Maintain Buy. RM258m job win in Johor has lifted outstanding order book to RM2.7b (+11%). We maintain our earnings forecasts which have imputed RM1.2b job wins for 2011 (2010: RM0.9m). Our fair value is RM2.85 based on 11x 2011 PER, while its merger with Sunway City, at RM2.60 offer price, offers a 19% upside. At current levels, the stock trades at a deep discount to its peers, at 8.4x 2011 PER.


The FBM KLCI rose 33.34-points and closed at 1,522.61 last week. The obvious support areas for the FBM KLCI are located in the 1,474 to 1,520-zone. The very firm resistance zone of 1,522 and 1,576 will see heavy liquidation activities.

Trading idea for today is a Buy call on PETDAG.


Other Local News
AirAsia: Indonesia IPO to raise USD200m, Sarawak offers land to AirAsia for LCCT. AirAsia Indonesia, a unit of AirAsia Bhd, aims to raise USD150m to USD200m via an initial public offering (IPO) in 4Q11. Separately, the Sarawak government has offered a piece of land next to the Kuching International Airport to AirAsia Bhd to build a dedicated low-cost carrier terminal (LCCT). (Source: The Star)

Maxis: In final stages to wrap deal with Barak Telecom. Maxis Bhd is close to securing a three-year deal to provide telecommunication services to Kuwait's Baraka Telecom Sdn Bhd in Malaysia. The agreement would mark Baraka's return to the mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) business in Malaysia. (Source: The Malaysian Reserve)

DRB-HICOM: To win RM7.5b project. DRB-Hicom Bhd is poised to receive a letter of award to supply 257 units of armoured personnel carriers (APCs) worth up to RM7.5b from the government. A group of banks led by Maybank, RHB Bank and AmBank are helping to arrange the syndicated loan and other financing, which could be worth as much as RM3.5b. (Source: Business Times)

Fajarbaru: Unit wins LRT jobs. Fajarbaru Builder Group Bhd's wholly owned subsidiary Fajarbaru Builder Sdn Bhd (FBSB) has received a letter of acceptance worth RM62.6m from Bina Puri Holdings Bhd-TIM Sekata joint venture for part of the light rail transit extension. Separately, FBSB has also received a contract worth RM87.3m from Trans Resources Corp Sdn Bhd to construct, complete, testing and commissioning of Station 1, 2 and 3 for Kelana Jaya line extension. (Source: Bursa Malaysia)

TRC Synergy: Expects new contracts. TRC Synergy Bhd (TRC) is expected to increase its order book this year with more contract wins, mainly from road projects in East Malaysia and also potential involvement in MRT (mass rapid transit) project. (Source: Malaysian Reserve)

Banking: Further tightening by Bank Negara in mortgage lending sector. Bank Negara would be taking pre-emptive measures in the mortgage lending sector to reduce risks. Banks will have to hold more capital for mortgage loans. Mortgages with loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of more than 90% will have to carry weightage of 100%, compared with 75% previously. The risk weightage for LTVs that are less than 80% remains 35% and for those between 80% and 90% remains at 50%. (Source: The Edge Financial Weekly)

Manufacturing: Investments hit RM4.6b. The manufacturing sector saw approved investments totalling RM4.6b in 67 projects in January. The largest domestic investment came from the oil and gas sector, led by Malaysia Marine and Heavy Engineering Bhd with a total investment of RM2.3b. Foreign investments approved totalled RM600m with Singapore, France, Japan, United Kingdom and India accounting for the major source of investments. (Source: The Star)

Economic: Malaysia's growth target remains despite Mideast turmoil. The Government is firm in achieving its 6% annual growth target this year despite the civil unrest in some Middle Eastern countries. The target was attainable by ensuring investments committed to Malaysia were implemented efficiently. (Source: The Star)

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Stocks to watch: Sunway, Fajarbaru, oil and gas, Allianz

KUALA LUMPUR: Stocks on Bursa Malaysia are expected to trade in a tight range with some downside pressure on Monday, March 7 as investors worry about the impact of record oil prices on the economy while consumers cope with the rising costs of food.

The revolt in Libya continues as Muammar Gaddafi's forces captured part of a town in western Libya on Friday, but rebels said they had taken the coastal oil town of Ras Lanuf, extending the territory they control in the east of the country.

The fighting appeared to confirm the division of the oil-producing desert state into a western area round the capital Tripoli held by forces loyal to Gaddafi and an eastern region held by those rebelling against his four-decade rule.

CIMB Economics Research had recently estimated the federal government’s fuel-related subsidies could reach RM14 billion based on the current oil price of US$90 to US$100 per barrel.

“If the oil price rises to US$130 to US$140 per barrel, the amount of subsidies could balloon to at least RM18 billion to RM20 billion,” it said in a recent report.

Under the Budget 2011, the federal government earmarked 6.3% of the total operating expenditure (opex) or RM10.3bn as subsidies for LPG, diesel and petroleum, based on an average oil price of US$85 per barrel. In 2008, subsidies for fuel and petroleum-related products amounted to RM17.6 billion or 11.4% of opex.

Meanwhile, Wall Street erased most of its weekly gains on Friday as fears of more geopolitical turmoil and higher oil prices threaten to stifle rallies in coming weeks.

The worries overshadowed strong labour market news. U.S. unemployment fell below 9% for the first time in nearly two years, but investors quickly turned to focus on intensified fighting in Libya and simmering unrest throughout the region. Brent crude prices rose above SUS$116 a barrel and the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, Wall Street's so-called fear gauge, rose 2.7% to 19.11.

Stocks to watch on Monday include SUNWAY HOLDINGS BHD, Fajarbaru Builder Group Bhd, oil and gas-related companies, UEM Group Bhd and ALLIANZ MALAYSIA BHD.

Sunway’s unit Sunway CONSTRUCTION Sdn Bhd Holdings Bhd has secured a RM257.96 million contract for the proposed construction of part of the Legoland Malaysia Theme Park in Johor. Sunway Construction had accepted the letter of award from IDR Assets Sdn Bhd to build package four of the theme park.

Fajarbaru’s unit has received the letter of acceptance from the BINA PURI HOLDINGS BHD []-TIM Sekata joint venture for part of the light rail transit (LRT) extension project valued at RM62.66 million.

Its unit Fajarbaru Builder Sdn Bhd was appointed by Syarikat Prasarana Negara Bhd as the nominated sub-contractor to the joint venture.

Oil and gas related companies will continue to trading interest, underpinned by the high oil prices and Petroliam Nasional Bhd’s RM250 billion plan in the next five years in exploration and asset replacement to maintain the exploration levels.

Other companies in the news are BANDAR RAYA DEVELOPMENTS BHD, whose unit BR Property Holdings Sdn Bhd has secured a RM450 million term loan to repay inter-company loans, payment of dividend and working capital purposes.

MUTIARA GOODYEAR DEVELOPMENT Bhd has launched its new phase of its lifestyle homes in Nadayu 92, Kajang with a gross development value (GDV) of over RM40 million.

UEM Group Bhd is looking into investing more in India’s infrastructure development projects particularly expressways, which presents tremendous growth potential. The projects would be undertaken by PLUS EXPRESSWAYS BHD and UEM BUILDERS BHD.

OSK Research has initiated coverage of Allianz Malaysia with a BUY, at a target price of RM5.68, derived from a sum of parts valuation.

Riding on potentially strong growth in the life insurance industry and a re-rating of motor insurance, Allianz as the biggest general insurance player is poised to benefit from the encouraging industry outlook.

“The company is also seeking to establish a foothold in the fast growing takaful industry to diversify its business,” the research house said.

OSK Research said apart from being the No. 1 one player in Malaysia’s general insurance industry with gross written premiums (GWP) totaling RM1.3bn in FY10, Allianz’s life insurance business is no less a consistent performer, chalking up RM1bn in GWP on the back of a robust double digit growth of 18.5% in FY10.

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RHBInvest Research

Petronas Chemicals:
New Coverage
The New Chemical Player In Town
Initiate with Outperform call and fair value of RM7.25/share


Corporate Highlights


CI Holdings:
Briefing Note
Bitter Days Ahead Surprise Sugar Bomb Dropped
Fair value is reduced to RM3.88 (from RM4.90 previously).
We downgrade our call on the stock to Market Perform.


Adventa:
Company Update
Share Price to Remain Buoyant On Talks of Takeover.
Our fair value have been raised to RM3.00 (from RM2.21).
We reiterate our Outperform call on the stock.


Fajarbaru:

2QFY11 Results
Slow 1HFY06/11 but stronger 2H ahead
Fair value is RM1.37. Maintain Outperform.

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RHBInvest Research

Top Story: Public Bank – Expect a solid finish to FY10
Announcing its 4QFY10 results later this month with full-year net profit estimate of RM3bn.

• With 9M annualised gross loan growth at 13.7%
• Non-interest income to remain at healthy
• Expect a second interim gross DPS of 35 sen
• Maintain Outperform with FV of RM15.40

Construction: BLT to roll out RM3bn jobs this year

• Believed that the RM3bn police quarter/station contracts largely went to privately owned Class-A Bumiputera contractors.
• Expect the winners of the RM3bn jobs to sub-contract out part of their jobs that will translate orderbooks to other players in the industry.
• Downgrading IJM to Underperform from Market Perform as valuations are now ahead of fundamentals.
• Maintain Overweight. Top "tactical" pick is Gamuda (FV=RM4.51) and top "value" pick is Fajarbaru (FV=RM1.37)

SP Setia:

• Swapping of IMR Land in Bangsar for a new integrated complex construction at Setia Alam
• Bangsar IMR Land to be developed into an integrated complex of residential and high-rise office buildings
• Maintain Outperform with an unchanged fair value of RM8.05

VS Industry:
Orders from for Dyson vacuum cleaners have already exceeded internal expectations
Recently secured a contract to produce components for an international leading water management solution company based in Australia
Raised our FY11-13 revenue assumptions by 1.6%, 3.6% and 0.1% respectively
Upgrade to Outperform with fair value of RM2.44

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RHBInvest Research Highlights 22nd October 2010

Top Story

Telecom:

• Sizing up the pure mobile domestic players – Maxis vs. DiGi.
• No change to our Neutral stance on the sector.
• Maintain Outperform on Maxis (FV=RM5.75)
• Maintain Outperform on DiGi (FV=RM26.35)
• TM (Market Perform, FV=RM3.55)
• Axiata is still a Market Perform (FV=RM4.75)

Corporate Highlights

MAHB:

• Sabiha Gokcen for long term prospects.
• We have raised our fair value to RM6.81 (from RM5.96). Maintain Outperform.

Fajarbaru:

• Lands RM36.5m Pasir Mas Halal Park infrastructure job.
• Fair value is RM1.37. Maintain Outperform.

Technical Highlights

Daily Trading Strategy:

• Fresh opportunity to retest 1,500
• A sustainable trading above the 10-day SMA means a return to positive trading sentiment in the short term.
• For now, the 10-day SMA becomes its immediate support level on the chart, followed by the tiny technical gap near 1,472.32 - 1,476.05.
• Robust trading volume and healthy rotational plays are expected to cap profit-taking pressure in the near term, in our view.
• Opportunity to retest the 1,500 psychological level and the recent high of 1,503.82, before gearing up to challenge the historical high at 1,524.69

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Air Asia, Fajarbaru Stock to Watch

Fajarbaru weekly chart - downtrend line broken

On Bursa Malaysia, the stocks that could be in focus include Fajarbaru Builder Group Bhd, OSK HOLDINGS BHD, AIRASIA BHD, MALAYSIA BUILDING SOCIETY BHD (MBSB).

Fajarbaru landed a contract worth RM36.47 million from the East Coast Economic Region Development Council (ECERDC) for the CONSTRUCTION of the first phase of the Pasir Mas Halal Park in Kelantan. Yesterday, Fajarbaru said its unit Fajarbaru Builder Sdn Bhd had received the letter of acceptance from the ECERDC on Oct 19. It said the construction period was 15 months commencing from the date of possession on Nov 1 this year.

Air Asia weekly chart - with strong uptrend

AirAsia extended the term of its cooperation agreement with Tune Talk Sdn Bhd (TTSB) up to July 27, 2011 to generate extra revenue and further boost the low-cost carrier's branding.

Under the terms of the agreement, AirAsia would continue selling any unsold TTSB SIM cards; allow TTSB to continue redeeming unused e-gift vouchers; continue utilising the various advertising platforms; and continue AirAsia's entitlement to be remunerated with a 5% sale commission on total top-up sales.

TTSB is 23.42% owned by Tune Ventures Sdn Bhd, in which both Datuk Seri Tony Fernandes and Datuk Kamarudin bin Meranun are substantial shareholders. The low-cost carrier has also been in focus lately after several analysts raised their target price and earnings estimates on it. Analyst raised their target price for the low-cost carrier following the release of its preliminary 3Q operating statistics on Tuesday, which saw revenue passengers kilometre (RPK) increasing 26.6% from a year earlier.

MBSB’s net profit for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2010 surged to RM133.21 million from RM66.91 million a year earlier, due mainly to higher loan and financing income, especially from the expansion of personal financing and higher other operating income from personal financing activities. These were partly set off by higher operating expenses and higher loan loss impairment, it said in a filing to Bursa Malaysia on Thursday, Oct 21.

MBSB chief executive officer Datuk Ahmad Zaini Othman said the company’s sustainability of its profit for the current quarter was due to the right strategies adopted.

OSK Holdings’ indirect wholly owned subsidiary OSK Indochina Securities Ltd (OSKIL) has been issued the licence for Securities Firm by Securities and Exchange Commission of Cambodia (SECC). The licence permits OSKISL to undertake securities underwriting business, securities dealing business, securities brokerage business and investment advisory business in Cambodia.

source: theedgemalaysia

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