Maybank IB Views

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Singapore: Trade, Sep 2011
Bumpy ride...

Worse-than-expected... Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) fell by -4.5% YoY as opposed to the expected +3.5% YoY gain. At the same time, Aug 2011's growth was revised downward to +3.9% YoY (previous: +5.1% YoY). YoY figures have been swinging between growth and contraction in the past seven months, resulting in sluggish 2011 YTD growth of +3.9% (Jan-Sep 2010: +24.8%; 2011: +22.8%). Next year's NODX growth is expected to remain equally sluggish at 3.8%, according to the forecast by Maybank FX Research.

Public Bank RM12.50: Hold
Decent growth but priced in

Hold maintained. 3Q11 RM899m net profit, while up a commendable 15% YoY, is broadly within expectations, with 9M11 RM2.61b net profit (+18% YoY) at 77% of our full-year forecast and consensus. Positive surprises on margins were offset by lower-than-expected non-interest income (NII). Our forecasts are maintained along with our TP of RM12.30 (2012 P/BV of 2.5x, ROE: 21.8%).

Axis REIT RM2.45: Buy
On track; better 4Q ahead

Maintain Buy. AXRB's RM48m 9M11 core net profit (+32% YoY) came in as expected. The proposed acquisition of warehouses in Seberang Perai is expected to be completed by end-11, lifting AXRB’s total assets to RM1.32b (+4.8%; from RM1.26b). AXRB aims to grow its total asset size to RM2.0b by 2012. We maintain our earnings forecasts and RM2.70 DCF-based TP. The trust's proven track record in growing its asset portfolio and dividend income will remain the pull factors.

Automotive: Underweight
Cool down in September sales

Post raya and Merdeka sales dampen September TIV. The MoM contraction in Sep's vehicle sales was widely anticipated following the rush of deliveries in Aug and shorter working month. Overall, we expect a seasonally softer sales trend in 4Q from 3Q TIV sales of 153,041 units and continue to be bearish on the sector, on softer consumer spending in light of a potential global economic slowdown. The sector remains an Underweight and we retain our Hold calls on UMW and MBM while Proton and TCM remain as Sells.

The FBM KLCI surged 22.92-points to close at 1,465.35 yesterday. Its resistance areas of 1,467 and 1,487 may cap market gains, whilst the obvious support areas are located at 1,445 and 1,465.

Trading Idea is MFLOUR

Other Local News
Mah Sing Group: RM2.5b sales target next year. In order to achieve its sales target of RM2.5b, Mah Sing Group plans to adjust their product mix in line with today's sentiment and needs. Mah Sing Group will focus on lower-priced and smaller units of serviced apartments in the next two years to cater to demand of the young population. (Source: The Star)

PacificMas: OCBC bids RM450m for PacificMas units. OCBC Capital Malaysia planned to acquire 100% of Pac Lease Bhd, PB Pacific Sdn Bhd, PacificMas Fidelity Sdn Bhd and PacificMas Capital Sdn Bhd as well as an 85% stake in Pacific Mutual Fund Bhd with aggregate purchase consideration of RM450m. (Source: Bursa Malaysia)

Leader Universal: Controlling shareholders offer buyout. The controlling shareholders of Leader Universal Holdings Bhd, through HNG Capital Sdn Bhd (HNGC), have made a RM480.1m offer to acquire the entire assets and liabilities of the company for RM1.10 per share. The purchase shall be satisfied via RM410.9m in cash and RM69.2m as an amount remaining due and owing by HNGC as a debt due to Leader. (Source: The Star)

Proton: Offers lifetime warranty on power windows. Proton has once and for all moved to erase any doubt over defective power windows by offering a lifetime warranty for all new Proton models registered from Sept 1, 2011 and vehicles that are still under the manufacturer’s warranty as at Sept 1. (Source: The Star)

Construction: Second Penang Bridge ahead of schedule. Construction of the second Penang bridge is likely to be completed two months ahead of its projected November 2013 schedule. It is likely that work on the new bridge will achieve 70% progress by the end of this year. (Source: Business Times)

Transportation: Better KTM Komuter service by Jan 2012. KTM Komuter users can look forward to better commuting experience this January when the first of the 38 six-car electrical multiple unit (EMU) is put into service. To complement the new trains, an automatic fare collection system was being implemented and full refund will be given for trips that are delayed by more than 30 minutes. (Source: The Sun, The Star)


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